Prospek Jangka Panjang Saham Indonesia Hingga Tahun 2030

Hi Jim, thank you for our conversation today 🙏 I have one more thing I would like to say to you.

I started to learn stock investing in Indonesia stock exchange (IDX) in 2009, and opened my first account (and bought my first stock) in February 2010. I still remember, in May 2010, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was still at 2,500. Three years later in May 2013, the JCI was already above 5,000. So during that time, I was in a period of 'whatever stocks you buy, you most likely make money'. In 2011, I bought stocks of a small coal mining company, and it went from Rp110 to more than Rp5,000 per share one and a half year later. Unfortunately I sold it at Rp1,500 per share, but it remains my biggest profit (in percentage) from a single stock until today. That's one of the reasons why in 2012, I decided to quit my job to be a full time investor. Also in 2012, I started to give value investing training to the public, and make some good money from it which later I put it all into stocks.

In 2010, I started my account with only a $500 deposit from my salary as an employee. In 2014, I got my first $100,000.

Pada 28 Oktober 2021, saya bertemu (via Zoom) dengan James J. Clarke, portfolio manager di Brandywine Global, perusahaan asset management asal Amerika Serikat, dimana Mr. James beserta timnya bertanggung jawab atas dana kelolaan $8 milyar yang ditempatkan di seluruh dunia, termasuk Indonesia. Nanti saya mungkin akan posting video meetingnya di YouTube, masih menunggu persetujuan yang bersangkutan

But here's the thing. In 2013, I was losing money for the first time when the JCI dropped from 5,251 to 4,000. Luckily in 2014, it went up to 5,500 and I recovered my losses, even more than that. In 2015, the JCI dropped once again to 4,200, but this time I was able to sell most of my stocks just before the crash, and later repurchased it when the JCI was at 4,500.

But years after that were never like in 2010 - 2013 when the JCI went doubled in just three years. In the market crash of March 2020, the JCI tumbled to as low as 4,000, it later regained some ground and closed at 5,979 at the end of 2020. I told you above that in May 2013, the JCI was already at 5,251. In May 2021, the same index was at 5,773. So during those eight years, investors in IDX received almost no capital gains except dividends. Overall I myself was doing well in that period. But compared to 2010 - 2013, you can say that I struggled.

Later I look at history. In May 2003, the JCI was in its 500's. So whoever starts investing in IDX in that year, they would likely be rich ten years later (in 2013), as the index gained tenfold into 5,000's, along with the economic expansion in the country after the Asian financial crisis of 1998. That's when we have had our own version of Tesla, Apple, Amazon and so on, which gained thousands of percent after several years. One of the most famous stocks/companies was Bumi Resources, which rose from Rp200 in 2003 to Rp8,450 per share in 2008. It was crazy!

But the story was totally different for those who started to buy stocks here in the years after 2013, some of them even losing money. Here in Indonesia we have a social security company owned by the Government called BPJS Ketenagakerjaan, who put at least $5 billion into stocks, either directly or through mutual funds since 2016. Today, they lost about $2 billion.

I believe history will repeat, and usually the period of economic expansion in a particular country begins not long after the crisis. Just like in the United States where the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ rose rapidly in the decade after the 2008 crisis, I hope after this crisis of 2020 - 2021, the JCI in Indonesia would once again skyrocketed until maybe 2030. I was lucky to started my investing journey in 2010, so today I have enough experience (and capital) to maximize the profit when this decade of economic booming finally came. Well, I hope 😊

Minggu depan kita akan bahas prospek IPO Mitratel.

***

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Latetraveller mengatakan…
Optimisme mr James patut diteladani.
Semoga berbuah manis bagi yang mau meneledani serta rajin membaca dan belajsr.
Ditunggu uploadan diskusinya dengan mr James.

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